Just when I thought the conference musical chairs had ended last summer (with Utah & Colorado going to the Pac-12, Nebraska to the Big 10, Boise State to the Mountain West), here comes the music again.
Last summer, the key to all the moves was Texas. Had the Longhorns left the Big 12 for the Pac-10, the Big 12 would most likely dissolved. However, the Longhorns stayed put, and the other schools in the conference cut a deal to let Texas have a bigger slice of the TV revenue pie. At that point, it seemed like the expansion talk would die down.
During last summer's talk, much air space and ink was spent talking about how there would eventually be four "super conferences" of 16 teams each, which would then break apart from the NCAA and do their own thing. When Texas declined to join the Pac-10 (or Pac-12 or Pac-16), that talk was shelved.
Enter Texas A&M: the Aggies are apparently steamed that their arch-rival is getting their own network via ESPN, the Longhorn Network. Not only is Texas getting a bigger share of the Big 12 revenues, they would also earn an additional $11M from the Longhorn Network. The added exposure would surely put A&M and the other schools at a recruiting disadvantage. So the Aggies spent last week trying to get invited as the 13th member of the SEC.
Had the SEC invited Texas A&M, there's no way the conference would stay at 13 teams; they'd have to invite a 14th team to make equal divisions. Who would the 14th team be? Some reports were Missouri, Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech. The Hokies and Tigers (Clemson) both seem to be fine in the ACC, and Florida State said the SEC never talked to them.
All this is moot now: the SEC has turned down Texas A&M...for now. I believe if the presidents and conferences are still set on major conference realignment, it will probably happen after the current BCS contracts expire after 2013. After that happens, it's anyone's guess which teams will end up where.
There has to be a point where conferences decide that it's not worth exanding. One reason is geography: why would you want to play conference games against schools that are 500+ miles away? And not just football, but all the other sports, too.
Second: how many ways can TV money be divided up? Is 1/16th of a pie going to be greater than 1/12th of the old pie?
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